What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from Spain and 1.1 from England, so Spain come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Spain come into this on four straight wins. England come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Spain to win. Spain are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-1.1), and we make them about 57% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.61, which works out at about 62 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
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