Switzerland v Slovenia: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Switzerland to win 68%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.8 goals from Switzerland and 0.7 from Slovenia, so Switzerland come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Switzerland come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Switzerland to win. Switzerland are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-0.7), and we make them about 69% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.