How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Tunisia to win 63%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Tunisia host Uganda in an AFCON qualifier on 24 September 2026. Both teams are looking to improve their positions in the group, but the numbers tell us that Tunisia sit a clear step above their visitors. The statistical picture shows Tunisia averaging 1.8 goals per game while Uganda manage only 0.8. The chance that Tunisia will find the net at least once is very high – 85 percent – and they have a better than even chance, 54 percent, of scoring twice or more. Uganda’s odds of scoring at all sit at just over half, 51 percent, and the likelihood of them hitting the net twice drops to 15 percent. In short, the balance of power leans heavily toward the home side, and the points on offer in this fixture could be crucial for the final table shape.
Our pick is a Tunisia win. We see the price of 1.45 as too short compared with our own reading of the match. We estimate Tunisia’s chance of coming out on top at about 63 percent, which is close to the 65 percent we mentioned in our short note. The price therefore does not give enough reward for the risk, but it still represents a clean play if you want a simple bet on the stronger side. For the pick to go wrong, Uganda would need to defy the odds and score at least once while keeping Tunisia off the board, something that has only a 15 percent chance of happening according to the data. If Uganda manage to score twice, the upset becomes even less likely, at just 15 percent. All things considered, backing Tunisia to win looks the safer route, and the price, while short, still offers a decent return for a side that is expected to score more than twice as often as their opponents.
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