Tunisia v Uganda prediction

What to expect

Tunisia host Uganda in an AFCON qualifier on 24 September 2026. Both teams sit in the middle of their groups, but the numbers show Tunisia as the clear favourite. Tunisia’s expected goal tally is 1.8 compared with Uganda’s 0.8, and the chance of a Tunisian goal is 85 percent while Uganda’s chance sits just above half at 51 percent. A win for Tunisia would push them a step closer to the top spots, while Uganda needs a point to keep any hope of moving up. The clash is therefore a test of whether the stronger side can turn its statistical edge into three points.

Tunisia have been busy in recent weeks. They beat a neighbour 3-1, then held a rival to a 2-2 draw, and most recently they thumped a lower-ranked side 4-0. Those three games give them seven goals scored and just three conceded. The run shows a side that can find the net regularly and also tighten up at the back. Scoring four in the last outing should give them confidence that they can break down any defence.

Uganda’s recent form tells a different story. They lost 1-0 away, then suffered a 2-1 defeat at home, and most recently they managed a 1-1 draw against a team that had been unbeaten. In that draw they created a few chances but only one goal came out of them. The result shows a side that can keep games tight but struggles to score more than once. Their last match ended level, but they were unable to find a second goal when they needed it.

When the two have met before, the games have been low-scoring affairs, with each side finding the net only once or not at all. Given the current numbers, we expect a similar pattern – a tight match with few chances, but Tunisia’s higher chance of scoring twice or more (54 percent) suggests they could break the deadlock early and keep the pressure on. Uganda’s chance of scoring twice is only 15 percent, so a single goal from Tunisia could be enough.

We pick Tunisia to win. The price of 1.48 is shorter than our own reading of the game, which puts Tunisia’s chance of victory at about 65 percent. That makes the price look attractive for a side that is statistically stronger and has been scoring freely. For the pick to go wrong, Uganda would need to find a way to score first and then hold on, or Tunisia would have to miss both of their high-probability chances. Both scenarios are unlikely, so backing Tunisia looks the cleaner play.