How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made United States to win 58%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from United States and 0.9 from Peru, so United States come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: United States to win. United States are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-0.9), and we make them about 59% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.52, which works out at about 66 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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