How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Iran or Draw 75%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Uzbekistan host Iran in an international friendly on 24 September 2026. Both teams will be using the match to give playing time to a broader group of players, as the result does not count toward any qualification. The game is therefore more about testing depth than fighting for points, but it still offers a chance for each side to show where they stand against a regional rival.
In recent outings the two sides have not been listed, so we cannot point to a run of form. What we do know from the numbers is that Iran are expected to be the stronger side, with an average of 1.5 goals compared with Uzbekistan’s 1.1. Uzbekistan are likely to find the net, with a 66 % chance of scoring at least one and a 28 % chance of scoring twice. Iran have a 79 % chance of scoring and a 44 % chance of getting two or more goals. Overall the game is projected to produce about 2.6 goals.
Our pick is Iran or a draw at odds of 1.38. The price sits close to our own reading of the game. Backing Iran or the draw gives us a safety net – if Iran win outright we are right, and if the match ends level we are also covered. The chance of this outcome happening is about 75 % in our view. For the pick to go wrong Iran would need to lose, which would require an unusually low scoring performance from them and a better than expected showing from Uzbekistan.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
