What to expect
We expect about 0.8 goals from Al Kahrabaa and 1.3 from Al-Karma, so Al-Karma come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Al-Karma to win. Al-Karma shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-1.3), and we make them about 46% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 46 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.63, which works out at about 61 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Al Kahrabaa only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. The price is shorter than our own read of about 46%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.