What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Al Talaba and 1.0 from Newroz, so Al Talaba come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Al Talaba to win. Al Talaba are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-1.0), and we make them about 44% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 44 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.25, which works out at about 44 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Newroz a draw or better. We make it about 44% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.