What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Al-Mosul and 0.9 from Karbalaa, so Al-Mosul come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Al-Mosul (Draw No Bet). Al-Mosul are favoured here (xG 1.6-0.9), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Al-Mosul defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 80 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A draw hands your stake back, so only an outright Karbalaa win beats you — but on the day nothing is guaranteed.