What to expect
Duhok host Gas Alshimal at home in the Iraq Stars League on 8 September 2026. Duhok sit ninth in a 20-team table with seven points from five games and a +1 goal difference. One spot above them is Al-Jolan SC, just a point ahead, while Al Quwa Al Jawiya sit directly below, level on points. Both clubs are fighting to climb out of the mid-table pack, so a win could push Duhok into the top half and keep the pressure on the teams around them. The numbers we have suggest Duhok will score about 1.5 goals and Gas Alshimal about 0.8, making the home side the clear favourite.
Duhok have not lost in their last three matches. Their most recent game was a 2-1 victory over Al Quwa Al Jawiya at home, followed by a goalless draw away at Newroz and a 1-1 draw away at Al Naft. In those three games they have scored three goals and let in two. They kept one clean sheet, failed to find the net once and were involved in two games where both sides scored. The run shows a side that can win at home but also knows how to grind out draws on the road.
Gas Alshimal’s recent form is not given in the data we have, so we cannot detail their last results. The only concrete information we have about them is the expected goal tally of 0.8 for this match. Because we lack a recent-game list, we will focus on what Duhok have done and the overall expectation that the visitors will find it difficult to score more than a single goal.
The two clubs have not been listed as having met before, so we have no head-to-head record to draw on. Given Duhok’s unbeaten run and the fact they have already beaten a direct rival, Al Quwa Al Jawiya, this encounter looks like another test of their home resilience. Expect a tight game with few chances, probably ending with one goal for Duhok and none for the visitors, or at most a narrow 1-0 win.
We pick Duhok to win. The price on offer is 1.65, which is shorter than our own reading of the match. We think Duhok have about a 52 % chance of coming out on top, based on their recent form and the goal expectations. The price looks good for a side that should be able to break the deadlock at home. The pick would go wrong if Gas Alshimal manage to keep a clean sheet and score first, forcing Duhok into a chase. In that case a draw or a loss could happen, but the odds we see make the home win the cleaner choice.
