How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Al Quwa Al Jawiya to win 66%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from Karbalaa and 1.8 from Al Quwa Al Jawiya, so Al Quwa Al Jawiya come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Al Quwa Al Jawiya to win. Al Quwa Al Jawiya shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.8-1.8), and we make them about 67% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.48, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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