Hapoel Tel Aviv v Beitar Jerusalem: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Beitar Jerusalem to win 38%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Hapoel Tel Aviv host Beitar Jerusalem in a Ligat ha’Al clash at the end of September. Hapoel sit ninth out of fourteen, just one point clear of the relegation zone and level on goal difference. Beitar are twelfth, also in the drop zone, three goals behind and with the same points as the team above them. Both clubs are fighting to climb out of the bottom three and every point matters. The league table shows them almost neck-and-neck, and the game could decide which side stays just above the abyss.

Beitar come into the match on the back of three games without a win. Their most recent result was a 4-1 loss at home to Maccabi Netanya. Before that they fell 4-1 at home to PAOK and earlier drew 0-0 away to the same Greek side. In those three fixtures they have scored two goals and let in eight. They kept one clean sheet in the draw and failed to find the net in the loss to Netanya. Two of the three games featured three or more goals, and both teams scored in each of those matches. Their last outing was five days ago, so they have had a short break before travelling to Tel Aviv.

Our pick is Beitar Jerusalem to win. The price of 2.60 matches our view of the game. Both sides average about 1.3 goals, so a close contest is likely, but we give the visitors a slight edge. We think a Beitar win has roughly a 38 % chance of happening. For the pick to go wrong, Hapoel would need to tighten up defensively and find a goal early, turning the match into a low-scoring affair. If that does not happen, the odds look right for backing Beitar outright.