What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Hapoel Tel Aviv and 1.4 from Beitar Jerusalem, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Beitar Jerusalem to win. Beitar Jerusalem shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.3), and we make them about 39% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 39 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.25, which works out at about 44 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Hapoel Tel Aviv to spoil this. The price is shorter than our own read of about 39%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
