What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Avispa Fukuoka and 1.0 from Urawa Reds, so Avispa Fukuoka come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Avispa Fukuoka come into this on two straight defeats. Urawa Reds come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.4 goals (xG 1.3-1.0), and two is enough to land it, landing about 72% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.43, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
If chances go begging or a red card tightens things up, the goals may simply not come. We make it about 72% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
