How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Over 1.5 goals 69%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks fairly even on paper. Our numbers give Avispa Fukuoka a slight edge, with an expected 1.3 goals compared with 1.0 for Urawa Reds. The total we expect is about 2.4 goals, so the match should have a few chances on both sides but not be a goal-fest. It feels like a tight contest where a single mistake could decide the result.
Both teams have been struggling lately. Avispa have lost four of their last five league games and are coming in on two straight defeats. Urawa have also dropped three of their last five and are on a three-game losing run. When they have met before, Avispa have the better record with three wins, one loss and one draw in the last five meetings. Those games have averaged two goals, and the most recent encounter ended 0-0, showing they can keep things quiet.
We think the safest bet is for the match to have over 1.5 goals. Our estimate of about 2.4 goals means that reaching two goals is enough to win, and that happens around 70 % of the time with these figures. The price of 1.42 matches our view of the game, so it looks attractive.
The pick could go wrong if both sides tighten up even more and produce a 0-0 or 1-0 result. A very defensive approach from either team would keep the total under 1.5. We still feel fairly confident, but we know a single low-scoring game would spoil the plan.
Recent results
Avispa Fukuoka have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
