What to expect
We expect about 2.2 goals from Machida and 1.2 from Kawasaki Frontale, so Machida come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Machida come into this on three straight wins. Kawasaki Frontale come into this on three straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Machida to win. Machida are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-1.2), and we make them about 57% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.90, which works out at about 53 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Kawasaki Frontale to spoil this. We only make this about 57%, so it's far from a lock.
