Chiba v Okayama: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 78%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

The game looks tight and low-scoring. Our goal expectations are 0.8 for Chiba and 1.3 for Okayama, so we only see about two goals in total. That tells us the match will not be open; both sides are likely to be careful and chances will be few.

Chiba come in on three straight defeats, having lost all of their last three league games whether at home or away. Okayama have been a bit steadier, with two wins, one draw and two losses in their last five outings. The recent form points to a side that is struggling at home and a visitor that can still pick up points, which fits the picture of a modest goal tally.

We back the Under 3.5 goals. The price of 1.34 is longer than what we feel the game will produce, so it looks attractive. With an expected total of just over two goals, the chance of staying under 3.5 is high and we think the price reflects a good opportunity.

The only way this could go wrong is if the game opens up and both teams find the net more often than we expect. A sudden burst of chances would push the total above three goals. Even then, we still feel the odds of a low-scoring finish are strong, so we hold our view with confidence.