What to expect
We expect about 0.8 goals from Chiba and 1.3 from Okayama, so Okayama come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Chiba come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.1 goals in total (xG 0.8-1.3), keeping it under more often than not (about 60%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.77, which works out at about 56 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
One end-to-end spell, or a defensive mistake, and the goals can pile up before either side settles. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 60%.
