FC Tokyo v Chiba: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Under 3.5 goals 74%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

The match looks fairly balanced on paper. FC Tokyo are the stronger side according to the goal expectations, with 2.1 goals expected for them versus 1.0 for Chiba. That still leaves room for both teams to create chances, so we expect an open game with chances at both ends.

Looking at recent form, FC Tokyo have only managed one win, three draws and one loss in their last five league games, whether at home or away. Those results show they have struggled to turn matches into clear victories. There is no specific head-to-head data, but the pattern of tight games fits the idea of a low-scoring encounter.

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals. We think the price of 1.36 is longer than what the game deserves, which makes the pick attractive. Our own view is that the game will probably finish around 2.7 goals total, with each side scoring just over a goal on average. That keeps the total under 3.5 most of the time.

For the pick to go wrong we would need a sudden burst of goals – perhaps a defensive lapse or a set-piece miracle that pushes the total above three and a half. Even then, the odds of that happening are low. We are fairly confident in our view and hold it strongly.