What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Kashiwa Reysol and 0.9 from V-Varen Nagasaki, so Kashiwa Reysol come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Kashiwa Reysol come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Kashiwa Reysol to win. Kashiwa Reysol are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-0.9), and we make them about 61% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.66, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn V-Varen Nagasaki a draw or better. We make it about 61% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
