How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 69%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Kashiwa Reysol and 0.9 from V-Varen Nagasaki, so Kashiwa Reysol come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Kashiwa Reysol come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.5 goals in total (xG 1.6-0.9), keeping it under more often than not (about 72%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.40, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last two meetings are split 1-1, with no drawn.
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