FC Tokyo v Mito: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 6. We made FC Tokyo to win 58%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

FC Tokyo host Mito on a crisp October evening in the J1 League. Tokyo sit fourth in the table with 24 points from 11 games and a healthy +13 goal difference. One place above them sits Kashiwa Reysol, just a point clear, while Vissel Kobe trail by the same margin. Mito are down in 17th place with nine points, a -4 goal difference, and only one spot above the relegation zone. A win for Tokyo would push them closer to the European spots, while Mito would be fighting to climb out of the danger zone. Both clubs played only four days ago, so fatigue could be a factor for each side.

Tokyo have been in fine form over their last eight matches, winning six, drawing one and losing just once. Their most recent result was a 0-0 draw with Kashiwa Reysol at home, followed by a 4-0 away win over Verdy and a narrow 1-0 defeat to Mito Hollyhock on the road. Before that they beat Urawa Reds 3-0 at home, thrashed Shonan Bellmare 4-0 at home and recorded a 2-0 away victory over Ehime FC. In those eight games they have scored 16 goals and let in only one, keeping seven clean sheets. They have failed to find the net twice, and three of the matches produced three or more goals, but none of those games saw both sides score.

Mito’s recent run has been far less convincing. In their last eight fixtures they have won two, drawn one and lost five. Their latest outing was a 2-0 loss away to Okayama, and before that they fell 1-0 at home to Urawa Reds. Earlier they managed a 1-0 home win over FC Tokyo, then lost 2-1 to Shimizu S-Pulse at home, enjoyed a huge 7-0 away victory over Fukushima United, and were beaten 2-0 away by Yokohama F. Marinos. Across those eight games Mito have scored ten and conceded nine, keeping two clean sheets while failing to score in four matches. On the road they have one win, one draw and two defeats in their last four away games.

Our pick is a win for FC Tokyo. The numbers show Tokyo averaging 1.7 goals per game compared with Mito’s 0.8, and the chance of Tokyo scoring at all sits at 80 %. They also have a 49 % chance of scoring twice or more, while Mito’s chance of finding the net is just 54 % and only 19 % of scoring twice. We estimate a 58 % chance of a Tokyo victory, and the price of 1.32 is shorter than our reading of the match, making it an attractive offer. For the pick to go wrong, Tokyo would need to be held scoreless again and Mito would have to find the net, something that has happened only rarely in Tokyo’s recent eight-game run.