Urawa Reds v V-Varen Nagasaki: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Both teams to score 55%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Urawa Reds host V-Varen Nagasaki at home in a J1 League clash on 25 October. The Reds sit eighth in the table with 18 points from 11 games, three goals behind the leaders and just one point clear of both Kawasaki Frontale above them and Yokohama F.Marinos below. Nagasaki are 14th with 12 points, also on a –3 goal difference, a point ahead of Cerezo Osaka and a point ahead of Gamba Osaka. Both clubs are looking to move up the table, but the Reds have a slightly better chance of climbing, while Nagasaki are fighting to stay clear of the relegation zone.

Urawa Reds arrive on the back of three straight wins. In their last eight matches they have won six, lost two and not drawn any. The most recent results are a 3-2 home win over Chiba, a 1-0 away victory at Mito, a 4-0 away triumph over Yokohama FC and a 3-0 defeat away to FC Tokyo. Before that they beat Omiya Ardija 3-2 at home and won 3-2 away at Kataller Toyama. In those eight games they have scored 18 and let in 12, kept two clean sheets and failed to score only once. Seven of the matches produced three or more goals and both sides scored in five of them. The Reds played just four days ago, so they are on a short turnaround.

V-Varen Nagasaki have been less consistent, posting three wins, two draws and three defeats in their last eight outings. Their recent form includes a 4-0 home win over Sanfrecce Hiroshima, a 2-0 away loss to Kashima Antlers, a 1-1 draw away at Chiba, a 2-0 defeat away to Gainare Tottori, a 1-1 home draw with Cerezo Osaka and a 2-0 home win over Nagoya Grampus. On the road they have one win, one draw and three losses in their last five trips. Across the eight games they have scored 10 and conceded 9, kept three clean sheets and have been shut out twice. Three of those matches featured three or more goals and both teams scored in three of them. Like the Reds, Nagasaki also played four days ago, so fatigue could be a factor.

The two sides have met twice before, both games ending in goalless draws. The average of those meetings was just one goal, showing that they can produce tight affairs. However, the recent patterns for both clubs suggest a different story this time. Urawa have been involved in high-scoring games, with five of their last eight matches seeing both sides on the scoresheet. Nagasaki have also shown they can find the net, scoring in three of their last eight games and keeping a clean sheet in three. The numbers point to an open contest with chances at both ends rather than another shut-out.

Our pick is both teams to score. The Reds average about 1.8 goals per game and Nagasaki about 1.4, giving a combined total of roughly three goals. The chance of both sides scoring sits at 55 % in our view, and the price of 1.78 matches that assessment. For the pick to fail, one side would need to keep a clean sheet – either a solid defensive display from Urawa or a very tight Nagasaki defense. If the game follows the recent trends of open play and multiple goals, both teams should find the net and the price looks good.