How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Nagoya Grampus to score 1 or fewer 76%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from FC Tokyo and 0.9 from Nagoya Grampus, so FC Tokyo come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
FC Tokyo come into this on two straight wins. Nagoya Grampus come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Nagoya Grampus to score 1 or fewer. This is about Nagoya Grampus's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.9 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 76%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.41, which works out at about 71 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
FC Tokyo have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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