Yokohama F. Marinos v Mito: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Mito to score 72%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Yokohama F. Marinos host Mito in a J1 League clash on 19 September. The home side sit higher in the table, while Mito are 11th of 20 with nine points from seven games and a +2 goal difference. Cerezo Osaka sit one place above them, a point clear, and Urawa Red Diamonds are just behind. Both teams are close in the standings, but the numbers show Yokohama as the stronger side. A win for Yokohama would pull them a little further away from the mid-table pack, while Mito will be looking to climb back toward the safety zone.

Yokohama’s recent form has been mixed over their last eight matches. They drew 1-1 away at Machida, then beat Kashiwa Reysol 2-0 on the road. Back at home they shared a 1-1 draw with Kyoto, suffered a 3-2 loss away to Urawa Reds, and then earned a 1-0 home win over Vissel Kobe. Their most recent outing was a 1-0 away victory at Shimizu S-Pulse. In this run they have scored 12 goals and let in 11, kept three clean sheets and have been unbeaten in their last three games. At home they have one win, one draw and one loss in the same period.

Mito’s last seven games show a steadier pattern. They began with a 1-0 home defeat to Kawasaki Frontale, then earned a 1-1 away draw with Avispa Fukuoka. A high-scoring 4-2 home win over Kashima Antlers followed, then a 1-1 home draw with Machida. They travelled to beat Kyoto 3-1, and most recently drew 1-1 at home with Gamba Osaka. On the road in their last three trips they have one win, one draw and one loss. Across those seven fixtures Mito have found the net 11 times while conceding nine, and have only failed to score in one match. Six of the games featured both sides scoring.

The two clubs have met before, but the record is not given, so we simply look at the styles they bring. Yokohama tend to keep games tight, with three of their eight recent matches ending with three or more goals and both sides scoring in five. Mito’s recent fixtures have been more open, with six of seven games seeing both teams on the scoresheet. Expect a match where Yokohama will try to control the tempo, yet Mito’s habit of scoring and conceding alike suggests a game with chances for both sides and a decent chance of at least one goal from each.

Our pick is Mito to score. The chance we give the away side finding the net is 72 out of 100, and the price of 1.36 matches our view of the game. The price looks good and reflects the likelihood that Mito will get on the scoresheet. For the bet to fail, Mito would have to be shut out, which would require a very disciplined defensive display from Yokohama – something they have not consistently shown in recent games. If Yokohama keep a clean sheet, the pick loses, but the odds and our assessment suggest the risk is acceptable.