How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Daejeon Hana Citizen to win 43%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Daejeon Hana Citizen host Pohang Steelers at home in a K League 1 clash on 12 September. Daejeon sit sixth in the twelve-team table with 38 points and a +9 goal difference. They are three points behind Gangwon FC in fifth place and one point ahead of Incheon United in seventh. Pohang sit eighth with 36 points and a –7 goal difference, just inside the relegation zone. One spot above them is Incheon United, while FC Anyang sit below them. Both clubs played three days ago, so the match comes after a short turnaround for each side.
Daejeon have won two of their last three games. Their most recent win was a 3-2 victory over FC Anyang at home. Before that they travelled to beat Bucheon FC 1995 5-0, and the run started with a 3-1 loss away to Jeju SK. In those three matches they have scored nine goals and let in five. They kept one clean sheet and each game had at least three goals, with both sides scoring in two of them. The two straight wins give them confidence heading into this fixture.
Pohang have not won any of their last three outings. They opened the run with a 0-0 draw at home against Gimcheon Sangmu, then suffered a 2-0 defeat away to Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC, and most recently drew 0-0 away at Gangwon FC. Over those three games they have scored no goals and conceded two. They have kept two clean sheets but have failed to find the net in all three matches. The goalless draws mean they have not been involved in any high-scoring affairs recently.
The two sides have met before, but the record of those meetings is not supplied, so we cannot comment on past head-to-head scores. Given the current form, the game looks likely to be low-scoring. Daejeon have been scoring freely while Pohang have struggled to break the dead-lock. Both teams have kept clean sheets recently, so a tight contest with few chances is probable.
Our pick is Daejeon Hana Citizen to win. The numbers show Daejeon averaging 1.4 goals to Pohang’s 1.1, and Daejeon have a 78 % chance of scoring at least once compared with 68 % for Pohang. We give Daejeon a 43 % chance of taking all three points, and the price of 1.88 is shorter than our own reading of the game, making it look attractive. For the pick to go wrong, Daejeon would need to be shut out completely while Pohang manage to score, which seems unlikely given Pohang’s three-game goalless streak.
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