What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Ulsan HD FC and 1.1 from Incheon United, so Ulsan HD FC come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Ulsan HD FC to win. Ulsan HD FC are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.1), and we make them about 43% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 41 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.30, which works out at about 43 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Ulsan HD FC are unbeaten in their last three — two wins and one draw.
✓Incheon United have won one of their last three.
