What to expect
We expect about 2.2 goals from FC Astana and 1.2 from FC Yelimay, so FC Astana come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: FC Astana to win. FC Astana are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-1.2), and we make them about 61% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.80, which works out at about 56 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for FC Yelimay to spoil this. We make it about 61%: a lean, not a lock.
