FC Astana v FC Yelimay: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.4 goals and the game finished with 4. We made FC Astana to win 60%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 2.2 goals from FC Astana and 1.2 from FC Yelimay, so FC Astana come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Our pick: FC Astana to win. FC Astana are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-1.2), and we make them about 62% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.65, which works out at about 61 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.