How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Tobol Kostanay to win 53%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Tobol Kostanay and 0.7 from Ulytau, so Tobol Kostanay come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Tobol Kostanay to win. Tobol Kostanay are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-0.7), and we make them about 55% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 53 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.80, which works out at about 56 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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