How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Ordabasy Shymkent to win 61%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Irtysh Pavlodar host Ordabasy Shymkent at home in the Kazakhstan Premier League on 31 October 2026. Irtysh sit 12th out of 16 with 29 points and a -15 goal difference, just two points above the relegation-watching Atyrau and two points clear of Kyzylzhar. Ordabasy sit top of the table with 68 points, a +38 goal difference and a place in the European spots. The gap between the two is huge – 39 points – and the match could decide whether Irtysh stay clear of the drop zone or slip back into danger. Both teams have a lot to play for, but the stakes are far greater for the champions who want to keep their lead intact.
Irtysh have been a mixed bag in their last eight games, winning four and losing four. Their most recent win was a 3-2 away victory over Atyrau. Before that they suffered a heavy 5-0 defeat to Kairat Almaty away, then a 1-0 loss to Astana at home and a 2-0 loss to Kyzylzhar at home. They did bounce back with a 2-1 away win over Altai Oskemen and a 2-1 home win over Okzhetpes. In those eight matches they have scored nine goals and let in fourteen. They failed to find the net in four of those games, but five matches produced three or more goals and both sides scored in four of them. Their last home outing was a 2-1 win, giving them two wins and two defeats at Irtysh Stadium in this stretch.
Ordabasy have been far more consistent, posting six wins, one draw and only one loss in their last eight outings. Their most recent result was a 1-1 home draw with Zhenis. Prior to that they beat Aktobe 3-1 away, thrashed Kaisar Kyzylorda 4-1 away, won 3-0 at Atyrau away, and secured a 1-0 home victory over Astana. Their only defeat came 2-1 away to Okzhetpes. In the last four road games they have three wins and one loss. Across the eight matches they have scored 19 goals while conceding just six, keeping three clean sheets. Six of those games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in five of them. Their unbeaten run of five games shows they are hitting form at the right moment.
When the two clubs meet, the recent history favours Ordabasy. In the last five meetings Ordabasy have won three, drawn one and lost one, with an average of 2.2 goals per game. The most recent encounter ended in a 2-2 draw on 7 March 2026. The numbers suggest a modest scoring game – around 2.6 goals in total – with Ordabasy expected to net about 1.7 and Irtysh about 0.9. Given Ordabasy’s superior attack and tighter defence, the match is likely to be a close contest but with the visitors having the edge.
We pick Ordabasy Shymkent to win. The price of 1.80 is longer than our own reading of the game, which gives Ordabasy about a 62 % chance of victory. Their recent form, strong goal record and the fact they have scored in most of their recent games make them the safer choice. For our pick to go wrong, Irtysh would need to find the net twice or more, which has only happened in two of their last eight games, and they would have to keep a clean sheet while limiting Ordabasy to a single goal. If that happens the result could be a draw or a narrow loss for the visitors, but the odds of those scenarios are low.
Recent results
Ordabasy Shymkent have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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