How it turned out
We projected about 1.9 goals and the game finished with 1. We made Kaisar Kyzylorda to win 38%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Kaisar Kyzylorda and 0.8 from Atyrau, so Kaisar Kyzylorda come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.9 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Kaisar Kyzylorda to win. Kaisar Kyzylorda are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.1-0.8), and we make them about 40% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 38 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.30, which works out at about 43 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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