Kaspiy Aktau v Aktobe: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Aktobe to win 39%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.2 goals from Kaspiy Aktau and 1.4 from Aktobe, so Aktobe come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Aktobe come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Aktobe to win. Aktobe shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.4), and we make them about 41% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.

We put the chance of that landing at about 39 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.60, which works out at about 38 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.