What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Kaspiy Aktau and 1.4 from Aktobe, so Aktobe come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Aktobe to win. Aktobe shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.4), and we make them about 41% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 39 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.10, which works out at about 48 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Aktobe have won one of their last five.
