How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Ordabasy Shymkent to win 44%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Ordabasy Shymkent and 1.3 from FC Astana, so Ordabasy Shymkent come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Ordabasy Shymkent to win. Ordabasy Shymkent are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-1.3), and we make them about 45% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 44 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.95, which works out at about 51 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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