Al Fahaheel v Al-Salibikhaet prediction

What to expect

Al Fahaheel host Al-Salibikhaet at home in a Kuwait Premier League clash on 6 November. The hosts sit seventh in a twelve-team table with nine points from seven games and a modest +2 goal difference. One place above them sits Al-Arabi, level on points, while Al-Shabab SC sit just below with one point less. The visitors are languishing in eleventh place, also on four points but with a –9 goal difference. One spot above them is Al Sahel SC on the same points, and Al-Tadhamon sit below with a point to spare. Both sides are fighting to move away from the bottom half of the table.

Al Fahaheel come into this game after two straight defeats. In their last eight outings they have won three, lost five and never drawn. The most recent results were a 3-0 loss away to Al-Jahra, a 2-0 defeat away to Al-Arabi, a 2-0 home win over Al-Shabab SC, a 4-0 away victory at Al Sahel SC, a 4-1 home win over Al-Tadhamon and a 2-1 loss away to Al Nasr. In those eight games they have scored twelve and let in thirteen. They kept two clean sheets but failed to find the net in three matches. Six of the games featured three or more goals and in three of them both sides scored.

Al-Salibikhaet have not known a win in their last eight fixtures. Their record reads four draws and four defeats. The most recent results are a 2-2 home draw with Al-Salmiyah, a 2-1 away loss to Kazma, a heavy 7-0 defeat away to Kuwait SC, a 1-1 home draw with Al-Jahra, a 3-3 away draw with Al-Arabi and a 1-1 home draw with Al-Shabab SC. Across those eight games they have managed eight goals while conceding twenty. They have been shut out three times. Five of the matches produced three or more goals and in five both teams found the net. Their last game was six days ago.

When the two clubs have met before there is no record in the data we have, so we cannot point to a head-to-head trend. Given the numbers, the match looks open with chances at both ends. Al Fahaheel are expected to score about 2.2 goals while Al-Salibikhaet average around 1.3. The chance of Al Fahaheel scoring at all is high at 88 %, and they are likely to hit twice or more in 63 % of games. Al-Salibikhaet will find the net in 70 % of their matches but only score twice in about a third of them.

Our pick is Al Fahaheel to win. The price of 1.55 is shorter than what we feel the game is worth, but the numbers still give Al Fahaheel about a 56 % chance of coming out on top. They are the stronger side on the goal expectations and have the home advantage. For this to go wrong they would need to be shut out completely while Al-Salibikhaet manage to score at least once, something that has happened in a third of the visitors’ recent games. If that occurs the upset would be plausible, but we think the cleaner play is to back the home side.