Al-Shabab SC v Al-Tadhamon prediction

What to expect

Al-Shabab SC host Al-Tadhamon at home in the Kuwait Premier League on 6 November. Al-Shabab sit eighth out of twelve with eight points from seven games and a –4 goal difference. One place above them is Al Fahaheel, just a point clear, while Al-Jahra sit one spot below. Al-Tadhamon are bottom of the table, twelfth with three points and a –13 goal difference, a single point ahead of Al-Salibikhaet. Both teams are fighting to move away from the relegation zone, so the match carries real weight for each side.

Al-Shabab’s recent form has been mixed. In their last eight games they have won three, drawn two and lost three. The most recent result was a 2-2 draw away at Al Nasr. Before that they suffered a 4-0 defeat at home to Al-Qadsia and a 2-0 loss away to Al Fahaheel. They did manage a 2-0 away win over Al-Salmiyah, then lost 3-2 at home to Kazma and drew 1-1 away at Al-Salibikhaet. In those eight matches they have scored 13 goals and let in 15. They have kept only one clean sheet and have failed to find the net in two games. Five of the games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in five of them. The side has gone three games without a win and their last three home fixtures have produced one win and two defeats. They played just four days ago, so they are on a short turnaround.

Al-Tadhamon have struggled far more. In their last eight outings they have won only once and lost seven times. Their sole victory was a 3-2 home win over Al Sahel SC. Since then they have been beaten 6-2 by Kuwait SC at home, lost 2-1 away to Al Nasr, fell 2-0 at home to Al-Qadsia, were thrashed 4-1 away by Al Fahaheel and went down 2-0 at home to Al-Salmiyah. Over those eight games they have scored nine goals while conceding 24. They have failed to score in two matches. Six of the games produced three or more goals and both sides scored in six of them. Their most recent match was six days ago, a 3-2 home win that gave them a rare glimpse of confidence.

When the two clubs meet, the games have been evenly balanced. In the last five meetings each side has won twice and one match ended in a draw. Those encounters have produced an average of two goals per game. The most recent meeting on 26 June saw Al-Shabab win 3-1 away. Given the similar expected goal numbers of 1.4 for each side, we can expect another low-scoring affair with both teams likely to find the net at least once.

Our pick is Al-Shabab or a draw at 1.48. The price sits close to our own reading of the game. Al-Shabab have a slightly better chance of scoring and are playing at home, while Al-Tadhamon have struggled to score and keep clean sheets. The price looks good for a safe bet that covers the home side and a stalemate. For this to go wrong Al-Shabab would need to lose by more than one goal or fail to score at all, and Al-Tadhamon would have to win outright. Those scenarios feel unlikely, so we feel comfortable with our selection.