How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Al Nasr to win 40%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Al Nasr and 1.4 from Al Fahaheel, so Al Nasr come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Al Nasr to win. Al Nasr are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-1.4), and we make them about 41% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 40 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.96, which works out at about 51 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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