What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Alaves and 1.1 from Valencia, so Alaves come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Not both teams to score. This shapes up as a quiet, low-key game — around 2.5 goals between the two (xG 1.4-1.1). One side keeping it tight for a clean sheet is well on the cards.
We put the chance of that landing at about 49 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.82, which works out at about 55 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
