Alaves v Valencia: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Over 1.5 goals 68%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Alaves host Valencia at the Alaves ground on 15 September 2026 in a La Liga clash that could shift the table a little. Alaves sit fourth out of twenty, ten points clear after five games and with a +6 goal difference. They are just two points behind Real Betis, who sit one place above them, and level with Atlético Madrid, who sit one place below. Valencia are down at the bottom, twentieth, with only one point from five games and a –9 goal difference. They sit in the relegation zone, one point behind Elche, who are the only team above them. Both clubs have played only a few days since their last matches, so fatigue could be a factor.

Alaves have been strong at home in their recent run. In their last eight games they have won five, drawn one and lost two, scoring 14 and conceding only seven. At home they have been even better, winning four of their last five fixtures and losing just once. The most recent results were a 2-1 loss away at Santander, a 5-2 home win over Osasuna, a 1-0 home victory against Villarreal, a 1-1 draw away to Vallecano and a 3-0 home triumph over Getafe, before a 2-1 home defeat to Vallecano. They have kept four clean sheets and have been involved in four games with three or more goals, while both sides have scored in four of those matches.

Valencia have struggled to find form. In their last eight outings they have won two, drawn two and lost four, scoring nine and letting in fifteen. Their recent sequence includes a 1-0 loss away to Sevilla, a heavy 5-0 defeat at home to Barcelona, a 3-1 loss away to La Coruña, a 1-0 loss at home to Betis, a goalless home draw with Celta and a 3-1 home win over Barcelona. The last three trips away have produced one win and two defeats. They have kept only one clean sheet and have failed to score in four games. Like Alaves, they are coming in on a short turnaround, having played four days ago.

When the two sides meet, the games have been tight. In the last five meetings Alaves have won twice, Valencia once and two matches have ended in draws. The average scoreline of those encounters is 2.2 goals. The most recent meeting saw Valencia edge Alaves 3-2 in March. Given the recent form of both teams, we expect a game with both sides likely to find the net, but not a flood of goals. The pattern of recent matches suggests a moderate-scoring affair with chances for each side.

We pick the over 1.5 goals. Our expectation is about 2.6 goals in total, based on Alaves averaging 1.6 and Valencia 1.0. The chance of the over hitting is around 68 %. The price of 1.39 is shorter than our reading, which makes it look attractive. For the pick to fail, the game would have to finish 0-0 or 1-0, which seems unlikely given Alaves’ 82 % chance to score and Valencia’s 64 % chance. If both defenses hold tighter than expected, the bet could miss, but we think the odds are worth taking.