What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Elche and 2.3 from Real Madrid, so Real Madrid come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Real Madrid to win. Real Madrid shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-2.2), and we make them about 73% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
