How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Over 2.5 goals 67%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Elche and 2.3 from Real Madrid, so Real Madrid come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Elche come into this on two straight draws. Real Madrid come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.4 goals between the two (xG 1.1-2.3), landing about 69% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Real Madrid have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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