How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Espanol to score 71%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Vallecano host Español at the Vallecas ground on 15 September. Vallecano sit 16th in La Liga with four points from five games and a –6 goal difference. They are just one place above the relegation zone, a point ahead of Málaga and a point behind Celta Vigo. Español sit comfortably in eighth, seven points from five games and a +3 goal difference, two places and two points above them. Both clubs played three days ago, so fatigue could be a factor. The match could move Vallecano up a spot or see them slip further, while Español will look to keep their push for a top-half finish.
Vallecano’s recent form has been mixed. In their last eight games they have won three, drawn one and lost four. The most recent result was a 4-1 defeat away to Real Madrid. Before that they beat Santander 3-2 at home, then suffered a 5-2 loss to Barcelona away. They drew 1-1 with Alavés at home, lost 2-1 to Sevilla away and were beaten 1-0 by Crystal Palace away. In those eight matches Vallecano have scored 12 and let in 16, keeping only one clean sheet and failing to score once. Three of their last three home games have been wins or draws, showing they can be solid at home.
Español have been steadier. Over their last eight outings they have won four, drawn two and lost two. Their latest game was a 2-0 win away at Osasuna. Prior to that they drew 1-1 with Sevilla at home, then lost 2-1 to Sociedad away and 2-1 to Real Madrid at home. They bounced back with a 3-0 home victory over Levante and a 1-1 draw with Sociedad at home. In this run Español have scored 13 and conceded only seven, keeping three clean sheets. Their last three road games include two wins and one loss, indicating they can pick up points away from home.
The two clubs have met five times before. Español have won four of those meetings while Vallecano have managed one win, with no draws. The games have averaged 2.4 goals. The most recent encounter was a narrow 1-0 win for Vallecano on 23 April. Given the recent scoring rates – Vallecano averaging 1.4 goals and Español 1.1 – we expect another low-scoring affair, but both sides have shown they can find the net.
We back Español to score. The chance of them getting a goal is about 72 per cent, and our own feeling that the bet will hit is around 71 per cent. The price of 1.38 matches our view of the game. For the pick to fail, Español would have to be shut out, which would require a very tight defensive display from Vallecano or a poor finishing day for the visitors. All other factors point to at least one goal from Español, making the price look good.
Recent results
Espanol have won four of the last five meetings.
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