How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Ath Bilbao to score 2 or fewer 79%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Ath Bilbao host Alavés at San Mamés on 19 September 2026 in a La Liga clash that could shift the table a little. Bilbao sit mid-table, while Alavés sit sixth with eleven points from seven games and a +5 goal difference, a spot that puts them in the European places. Sevilla sit just above them, two points clear, and Deportivo A Coruña sit just below, also two points away. Both teams are looking to improve their positions, but the numbers suggest Bilbao are the stronger side.
Bilbao’s recent form has been mixed over their last eight matches. They drew 1-1 with Elche at home, then beat Atlético Madrid 3-0 at San Mamés. After that they travelled to beat Celta 2-0, but suffered a 2-0 loss away to Barcelona. Back at home they fell 3-1 to Sevilla and were beaten 4-2 by Real Madrid on the road. In those eight games they have scored ten and let in thirteen. They kept two clean sheets and failed to score in two matches. Their last three outings have all been unbeaten, and in their last four home games they have one win, two draws and one loss.
Alavés come into the game after a run of eight games that includes four wins, one draw and three defeats. Their most recent results are a 1-0 loss to Valencia at home, a 2-1 defeat away to Santander, a 5-2 home win over Osasuna and a 1-0 victory at home against Villarreal. Before that they drew 1-1 away at Vallecano and beat Getafe 3-0 at home. Over those eight games Alavés have scored thirteen and conceded eight, keeping three clean sheets and being shut out once. Their last three road outings have produced a win, a draw and a loss. They played just four days ago, so they will be on a short turnaround.
The two sides have met five times before. Bilbao have won three of those meetings, Alavés one and there has been one draw. The games have averaged 2.4 goals. The most recent encounter was a 4-2 victory for Bilbao at Alavés on 2 May 2026. That match showed both teams can find the net, but Bilbao were the better side overall.
We think Bilbao will score two goals or fewer. Our expectation for Bilbao’s goals is about 1.4, and the chance they score at all is high – 79 %. The price of 1.32 is longer than our own reading, so it looks attractive. For our pick to fail, Bilbao would need to find the net three times or more, which our numbers say is only a 43 % chance. If the game stays tight and both defenses hold, the bet should work.
Recent results
Ath Bilbao have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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