How it turned out
We projected about 3.6 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Sevilla over 2.5 corners 69%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Sevilla and 2.5 from Barcelona, so Barcelona come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.6 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Sevilla come into this on two straight wins. Barcelona come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Sevilla over 2.5 corners. Our model makes this about 69% for the home side. The match odds favour the away side, which tends to shift the corner count their way. Corners are a new market for us — the record is public from day one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.51, which works out at about 66 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Barcelona have won four of the last five meetings.
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