What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from Ath Madrid and 1.5 from Villarreal, so Ath Madrid come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Villarreal come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Ath Madrid or Draw. This covers Ath Madrid or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.24, which works out at about 81 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Two-way cover still leaves one result that beats you, and tight games can turn on a single mistake. The price is shorter than our own read of about 71%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
