How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 64%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Ath Madrid and 1.5 from Villarreal, so Ath Madrid come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.8-1.5), and we make both teams to score about 64%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.79, which works out at about 56 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
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