What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Elche and 2.3 from Barcelona, so Barcelona come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Elche come into this on three straight draws. Barcelona come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Barcelona to win. Barcelona shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-2.3), and we make them about 74% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Elche only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We make it about 74% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
