How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals; the game finished with 5. We made Under 4.5 goals 75%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Elche and 2.3 from Barcelona, so Barcelona come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Elche come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 3.4 goals in total (xG 1.1-2.3), keeping it under more often than not (about 77%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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