How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Real Madrid to win 63%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Espanol and 1.8 from Real Madrid, so Real Madrid come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Real Madrid come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Real Madrid to win. Real Madrid shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.8), and we make them about 65% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.46, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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