How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 7. Both teams scored. We made Under 4.5 goals 74%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.4 goals from Barcelona and 0.8 from Vallecano, so Barcelona come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Barcelona come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 3.1 goals (xG 2.4-0.7), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 77%).
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.48, which works out at about 68 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
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