Celta v Malaga: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Celta to win 53%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.5 goals from Celta and 0.8 from Malaga, so Celta come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Celta come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Celta to win. Celta are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-0.7), and we make them about 55% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 53 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.74, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.