How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Real Madrid to win 77%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.2 goals from Real Madrid and 0.8 from Vallecano, so Real Madrid come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Real Madrid to win. Real Madrid are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-0.8), and we make them about 79% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.13, which works out at about 88 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Real Madrid have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.
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