How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Ath Madrid to win 56%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Espanol and 1.8 from Ath Madrid, so Ath Madrid come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Ath Madrid come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Ath Madrid to win. Ath Madrid shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.8), and we make them about 57% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.76, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 1-1, with three drawn.
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