Valencia v Ath Bilbao: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Ath Bilbao or Draw 72%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Valencia host Athletic Bilbao at the Mestalla on 17 October. Valencia sit 19th of 20 with five points from eight games and a -9 goal difference. They are in the relegation zone, two points behind Elche and one ahead of Málaga. Athletic Bilbao are a safe mid-table side with no immediate danger of dropping down. Both clubs have very similar expected goal numbers – 1.1 for Valencia and 1.2 for Bilbao – and the match could decide whether Valencia can climb out of the bottom or sink further.

Valencia have struggled to find form in their last eight outings, winning only once, drawing twice and losing five times. Their most recent results were a 2-2 draw away at Santander, a 3-2 loss at home to Sociedad, a 1-0 win away at Alavés, a 1-0 defeat away to Sevilla, a 5-0 loss at home to Barcelona and a 3-1 defeat away to A Coruña. In those eight games they have scored six goals and let in fifteen. They kept two clean sheets but failed to score in four matches. The last four games at home have produced no wins, one draw and three defeats.

Athletic Bilbao’s last eight matches show a steadier picture with two wins, three draws and three losses. Their recent fixtures include a 0-0 home draw with Alavés, a 1-1 home draw with Elche, a 3-0 home win over Atlético Madrid, a 2-0 away win at Celta, a 2-0 away loss to Barcelona and a 3-1 home loss to Sevilla. Over those eight games Bilbao have scored ten and conceded eleven, keeping three clean sheets while being shut out twice. Their last three road games gave them one win and two defeats. The team’s most recent appearance was 28 days ago.

The two sides have met five times before, with Valencia winning three and Bilbao two, and no draws. Those meetings have been low-scoring, averaging 1.2 goals per game. The most recent encounter was on 10 May 2026 when Bilbao lost 0-1 at home to Valencia. Given the tight defensive records and the low goal averages, we expect another modest affair with few chances and both sides looking to avoid a heavy defeat.

We back Athletic Bilbao or a draw at 1.35. The price matches our view of a close, low-scoring game where Bilbao can pick up at least a point. The chance of this outcome is 72 out of 100 in our eyes. For the pick to fail, Valencia would need to score twice and keep a clean sheet, or Bilbao would have to lose despite a solid defensive display. In most other scenarios the result should stay level or tip in Bilbao’s favour.