How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Getafe to score 1 or fewer 72%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Getafe and 1.1 from Vallecano, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Getafe come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Getafe to score 1 or fewer. This is about Getafe's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.0 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 72%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Vallecano have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.
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