Real Madrid v Sevilla prediction

SevillaLDWWL

What to expect

We expect about 2.4 goals from Real Madrid and 0.9 from Sevilla, so Real Madrid come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Our pick: Real Madrid to win. Real Madrid are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.4-0.9), and we make them about 78% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.25, which works out at about 80 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.

What the numbers say

✓Real Madrid have won three of their last five.

✓Sevilla have won two of their last five.

✓Four of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.

✓Both teams scored in one of the last five meetings.

Recent meetings

17 May 2026Sevilla 0 - 1 Real Madrid

20 Dec 2025Real Madrid 2 - 0 Sevilla

18 May 2025Sevilla 0 - 2 Real Madrid

22 Dec 2024Real Madrid 4 - 2 Sevilla

25 Feb 2024Real Madrid 1 - 0 Sevilla

Real Madrid have won five of the last five meetings.

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More La Liga fixtures

This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.2 goals in total (xG 1.0-1.2), keeping it under more often than not (about 74%). Clear chances should be at a premium.

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14:15

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16:30

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