How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Under 4.5 goals 74%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Real Madrid look clearly stronger than Sociedad. Our numbers put the home side on about 2.4 goals and the visitors on about 1.0. That gap means Madrid should dominate, but both teams still have chances, so the match should have some action at both ends.
Looking at recent form, Madrid have won their last five league games, no draws or losses. Sociedad, on the other hand, have not won in five, with three draws and two defeats. In the last five meetings between the clubs, Madrid have won every single one and the games have averaged 2.6 goals. The most recent clash ended 4-1 to Madrid.
We pick the Under 4.5 goals. The expected total is around 3.4, so the line is high enough that only a very rare five-goal game would beat us. The price of 1.32 matches our view of the match, and we feel comfortable with it.
The pick would be wrong if both sides suddenly produced a lot of goals – for example, a 4-2 or 5-1 result. That would require Sociedad to score well above their usual rate and Madrid to find the net more often than expected. Our confidence is strong, but we acknowledge that an unusually open game could flip the outcome.
Recent meetings
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