How it turned out
We projected about 3.7 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Barcelona win & Over 1.5 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Barcelona look the stronger side here. Our numbers give them almost three goals while Bilbao are under one. That gap shows Barcelona should dominate, but the expected total of almost four goals means both teams will have chances. It looks like an open game with chances at both ends.
Barcelona have been winning most of their recent league games. In their last five matches they have four wins and only one loss, and they are coming in on three straight victories. Bilbao, on the other hand, have struggled, with four defeats in their last five and two losses in a row. The recent head-to-head record also favours Barcelona, who have won four of the last five meetings, the other ending in a draw. Those games have averaged just over two goals, suggesting both sides can find the net.
We pick a Barcelona win and more than 1.5 goals in the match. The price of 1.34 matches our view of the game. With a 74 per cent chance of this outcome, we feel confident that Barcelona will get the three points and the goal total will be exceeded.
For this to go wrong Barcelona would have to struggle to score and Bilbao would need to keep a clean sheet. A tight, low-scoring game would break our expectation. We still hold our view strongly, but we know football can be unpredictable.
Recent meetings
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