Santander v Real Madrid prediction

What to expect

We expect about 1.4 goals from Santander and 3.1 from Real Madrid, so Real Madrid come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Real Madrid come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Real Madrid to win. Real Madrid shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.4-3.1), and we make them about 79% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.

We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.28, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.