What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from FK Liepāja and 2.1 from Riga FC, so Riga FC come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Riga FC come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Riga FC to win. Riga FC shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-2.2), and we make them about 69% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.52, which works out at about 66 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
FK Liepāja only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. At around 69% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
